Bengaluru: The fate of the 17 disqualified Karnataka MLAs will be decided on Nov. 13 when the Supreme Court delivers its judgment in the case.

 The disqualified MLAs had moved the Supreme Court on Friday seeking deferment of by-elections in Karnataka, until the Court announced its decision regarding their disqualification. The by-elections to 15 Constituencies are scheduled for Dec. 5, which the disqualified MLAs sought to be deferred.

In July, the then Karnataka Speaker K.R. Ramesh Kumar disqualified 17 MLAs, belonging to the Congress and JD(S), rejecting the resignations submitted by them. The Speaker also barred them from contesting in by-elections until the end of the present Assembly term. 

Defying their respective party whips, these MLAs were absent from the House on July 23 when the then coalition Government headed by Chief Minister H.D. Kumaraswamy put the Confidence Motion to vote. The rebellion also allowed the BJP to come to power in Karnataka, after H.D. Kumaraswamy lost the Trust Vote.

The disqualified MLAs later moved the Supreme Court challenging the Speaker’s decision. They said it was in violation of the Apex Court orders and that it was illegal and unconstitutional. The rebel MLAs said that the Speaker was overreaching the mandate of the Constitution in rejecting the resignations and disqualifying them.

Several senior advocates appeared in the case. While senior advocates Kapil Sibal, Rajeev Dhavan, Devadatta Kamat and K.  Shashi Kiran Shetty represented the Congress and JD(S) parties, senior advocates Mukul Rohatgi, C.A. Sundaram, V.V. Giri, A.K. Ganguli and K.V. Vishwanathan appeared for the disqualified MLAs.

The by-elections to 15 Constituencies were initially scheduled for Oct. 21, but it was later deferred until the three-Judge Bench decides on the petitions by the 17 disqualified Legislators. However the by-elections to R.R.  Nagar and Maski Assembly segments are yet to be announced. The by-elections were then rescheduled for Dec. 5, but the disqualified MLAs once again moved the SC to further defer the polls until the case is resolved.

Senior Advocate Mukul Rohatgi, appearing for the disqualified MLAs, mentioned the matter and said the by-polls for the Assembly seats are scheduled on Dec. 5 and candidates are required to file their nomination papers between Nov. 11 and Nov. 18.

He said the disqualified MLAs will not be able to file their nomination and moreover the Apex Court verdict has not been delivered on the particular issue.

Rohatgi sought postponement of the by-polls till the Apex Court delivers its verdict on the petitions challenging the disqualifications. The Apex Court asked the counsel for the MLAs to file a fresh application in this regard.

Possible outcomes

1. Disqualified Legislators cannot contest the polls till 2023, if the Apex Court upholds their disqualification.
2. If the disqualification is upheld, then the by-polls will go ahead as per schedule.
3. The upholding of their disqualification will not allow the disqualified Legislators to hold any office of profit till 2023.
4. In case the Supreme Court while upholding the disqualification, rejects the 2023 timeline of disqualification, then the disqualified Legislators can contest the by-polls, without holding any office of profit, such as a Minister, Chairman of a Board, Corporation, etc.,
5. If the Court while rejecting the then Speaker’s decision, asks the current Speaker to look into the matter afresh, then the disqualified Legislators will get a new lease of life as they can be MLAs till the Speaker decides on their resignation afresh. 
6. But these Legislators cannot become Ministers until the Speaker accepts their resignations.
7. The question arises whether the by-polls will take place within six months if the resignations are accepted after the disqualified Legislators get a new lease of life.
8. If the Apex Court annuls their disqualification, then the possibility of some of these MLAs taking back their resignation cannot be ruled out. In such a scenario, a twist in the number game can be expected, which can destabilise the B.S. Yediyurappa Government.
9. If the Court upholds their disqualification, then the political future of some of these Legislators will be at stake.