NDA rule or UPA rule is not a matter of concern. For a common man, it does not make any difference. Both are two sides of the same coin. Their only aim is to make their cadre rich. Election promises are best forgotten after elections. Of course, both Congress and bjp have some experience of governance and the Government can last for 5 years comfortably. But the Karnataka model is scary at national level, if the Federal leaders have to depend on Congress for support from outside. The  rug can be pulled anytime over some trivial issues resulting in a re-election.

By N.K.A. Ballal, Retd. Sr. Vice-President, ITDC

Thursday, 23rd May, 3 pm,  the day the fate of the incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi  will be decided. A month back, it was more or less assumed that the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) would be back on the seat of power but with a  reduced majority. But after the fourth phase of voting, the tide was turning towards other regional parties, if satta market and share market speculation is anything to go by.

Illegal betting

The share market fell for 9 days in a row, a rare phenomena. Election results were not the only reason. The us, China trade war spooked the market to a large extent but there is a growing unease that the election results may throw up a surprise. It is not going to be a walkover for NDA as predicted earlier. The illegal betting  on election results in the satta market runs into hundreds of crores. These smart operators normally have their ears to the ground and their predictions are more accurate than most of the  exit polls.

There is a strong apprehension gaining ground that the bjp and specifically Modi may not get the required number to form the Government in spite of all the bluster shown by Modi and Amit Shah.

As many as 8.4 crore first-time voters were expected to cast their votes in this election with 1.5 crore of them in the age group of 18 to 19 years. These digitally smart voters were the potential vote-bank of bjp and their apathy may cost Modi several seats.

Political bargaining has started in a big way. To be in power means big money and every one wants a slice of the cake. Chandrababu Naidu, K. Chandrashekar Rao, Mayawati, Mamata Banerjee and our own H.D. Deve Gowda are working secretly to cobble a combination which is to their advantage. Parties who are expected to have big numbers like dmk, tmc or TRS  will call the shots.

If the bjp gets  230 seats  and above, they will form the Government with the help of their allies like Shiv Sena,  Akali Dal and a willing ally in YSR Congress. But the problem comes if the bjp gets less than 200 seats. To cobble up the numbers, the BJP has to compromise a lot. There is also a distinct possibility that Modi may be sacrificed and a bjp candidate acceptable to other major parties like Nitin Gadkari may be installed.

Uttar Pradesh, where 80 seats are on offer, holds the key for Modi’s return to power. The SP-BSP combination is really formidable. If they get more than 40 seats in UP, it will be very difficult for the bjp to make up the numbers elsewhere. To expect cent percent results in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh or even Gujarat is slightly far-fetched, considering the fact that Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh are Congress-ruled at present.

Federal Front

The Karnataka model of governance, where a major party has relinquished its right  for governance to a smaller party just to keep bjp out of power, is gaining ground. In Karnataka, in spite of bjp getting a big number, they could not get a few more MLAs to form a Government ! So the Federal Front talked about by KCR and Mamata is a reality. Regional Parties like JD(S), YSR Congress, TDP, TMC, SP, BSP and NCP may cobble a front and ask Congress to support it. In a recent interview P. Chidambaram and subsequently Gulam Nabi Azad has gone on record to say that the main objective of Congress is not to form a Government but to dislodge BJP from power at any cost.

So there is a distinct possibility that the Karnataka model may become a reality and South India, which has so far been a non-entity in national politics with just 129 seats, may become a “King-maker” and by chance a South Indian may become a King too as a compromise candidate.

Why do you think the grand-old-man of Karnataka, H.D. Deve Gowda, is contesting from Tumakuru after giving up his safe Hassan seat to his grandson!  His party with 38 seats is ruling the State and enjoying  it too. Every now and then they threaten the Congress in the State that in case they fall, bjp would come back to power. Congress Party is caught between the deep sea and the devil. So they quietly make noises and surrender, scared at the prospect of bjp coming back to power.

NDA rule or UPA (United Progressive Alliance) rule is not a matter of concern. For a common man, it does not make any difference. Both are two sides of the same coin. Their only aim is to make their cadre rich. Election promises are best forgotten after elections. Of course, both Congress and bjp have some experience of governance and the Government can last for 5 years comfortably. But the Karnataka model is scary at national level, if the Federal leaders have to depend on Congress for support from outside. The rug can be pulled anytime over some trivial  issues resulting in a re-election. A very costly and time-consuming exercise.

The only silver lining is that Congress, whose treasury is nearly empty, is desperate to be in power even unofficially. If they will ensure that the Government runs for at least three years, their treasury gets filled up. Each Federal leader would push or  pull to get plum money-making  Ministry as at present there is no one in sight who has the ability or presence to be a national leader  acceptable to all. But one never knows, a compromise candidate who has the backing of all the Federal parties can come up. The Government of the day has to sometime take unpleasant decisions  with firmness. To conclude, there are three possibilities as an outcome of this election.

Outcome

1. If BJP gets 230 seats and above, they form the Government with their allies. However, they will have to cede some plum Ministries to their allies unlike 2014. Modi will have to face the same music Dr. Manmohan Singh faced during his tenure. He will not get a free hand to do whatever he wanted.
2. If bjp gets 200 plus with their money-power, they may surprise the nation by getting new allies and form the Government but there is also a possibility that they may not be able to get the requisite number since bjp is perceived to be a non-secular party! The new allies may demand a new leader instead of Narendra Modi.
3. A distinct but a remote possibility is of Federal Front forming a group and making a claim to form the Government with the support of Congress (Karnataka experiment). A UPA Government looks like a non-starter. One never knows, a compromise candidate may come up. One thing is certain. ‘Who will be the King?’ will be decided by the Southern States. Do you agree ?

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