NDA leading in 297 seats; I.N.D.I.A bloc leading in 228 seats

New Delhi: As votes were counted for the Lok Sabha (LS) elections this morning, the BJP-led NDA surged ahead with leads in 292 seats, while the opposition I.N.D.I.A. bloc with leads in 233 seats as per the latest reports at 7.45 pm. These trends set the course for Prime Minister Narendra Modi to potentially secure a third consecutive term, albeit with a stronger Opposition.

If successful, it would mark only the second time an Indian leader has retained power for a third term, following in the footsteps of Jawaharlal Nehru, the country’s first Prime Minister.

According to reports flashed across TV channels, the opposition I.N.D.I.A. bloc’s performance has defied all exit poll predictions and Congress enjoying surprise gains. The magic figure is 272. Further updates are awaited.

UP a big surprise

The big surprise is the heartland State of Uttar Pradesh (UP), which BJP had swept in 2014 and held most of its ground in 2019. In the 2014 and 2019 elections, the BJP scooped up 71 and 62 seats. This time most exit polls had predicted an edge for the party. Around noon, the I.N.D.I.A. bloc — comprising the Samajwadi Party and the Congress in the State — holds a slender lead over NDA in an epic neck-and-neck fight.

Among the biggest talking points in this election was the construction of the grand Ram Temple in Ayodhya, a BJP poll promise since the 1980s, which BJP supporters claimed would be the decisive factor in the Lok Sabha election results. But trends show that Ayodhya failed to assert itself as the key factor even in Faizabad, the Constituency it is part of.

Karnataka trends

Trends for Karnataka showed potential gains for the Congress, with leads in 10 seats, up by 9 from last time. The BJP, which got 25 seats in 2019, was ahead in 19 at noon.

Karnataka’s vote share has increased for the Congress by 13 percent from 32 to 45 percent. BJP is down from 51 percent to 44 percent. JD(S) has done well for a party contesting only three seats compared to seven in 2019. It has got 8 percent compared to 10 in 2019.

West Bengal, Bihar data

Trinamool Congress (TMC) has been able to put up a stellar performance in West Bengal, fending off the challenge by the BJP. TMC’s Krishnanagar candidate Mahua Moitra currently leads by a margin of over 65,000 votes.

Abhishek Banerjee, too, extended his lead to over 3 lakh votes in Diamond Harbour TMC while their Asansol candidate Shatrughan Sinha leads by a margin of over 36,000 votes.

In Bihar, BJP’s poll arithmetic seems to have worked wonders for them as they wooed back its old ally, Nitish Kumar-led JDU. As numbers stand now, the NDA stands at 31, while the Opposition’s INDIA bloc is at 9.

Interestingly, however, RJD continues to be the party with the highest vote share in the State, polling 23 percent of the total votes polled.

Kerala, Tamil Nadu

Deeper south in Kerala, the BJP could make its much-debated electoral entry with trends showing it could bag one seat. In parallel, the Congress, which got 15 seats last time, was ahead in 13, including in Wayanad from where Rahul Gandhi was contesting. The CPI-M had gains in one. Tamil Nadu seemed to be scripting another story, not ceding any space to the saffron party. The ruling DMK was ahead in 20 and the Congress  in eight, exactly where they were in 2019.