In Mysuru, 30% peak on Jan. 25, 60% on Jan. 28, 100% peak on Feb. 2

By M.T. Yogesh Kumar

Mysore/Mysuru: While there is a discussion on the State Government likely lifting the night curfew and weekend curfew bowing to pressure from various quarters like the business community and also due to milder infection, a technical data released by the State COVID-19 Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) in Bengaluru states that the COVID third wave is likely to peak by Jan. 25 and will be active/severe till the second week of February.

In Mysuru, the daily fresh infections will be on an average from 2,250 to 7,000 cases. While the experts have not specified the dominant variant in circulation, sources suggest it is Omicron, given that a majority of infected people are reporting high fever, congestion, body pain and cough for a  short duration.

Experts said that it looks like almost every other household will have at least one positive case during the third wave. The only saving grace is that the infections will be milder and due to the antibodies obtained in the vaccination, hospitalisation is not widespread. Still, the administration is geared up to face any eventuality.

As per the data available, in Mysuru, there will be a 30 percent increase in positive cases from Jan. 25, 60 percent increase from Jan. 28 and 100 percent increase in positive cases from Feb. 2. After the peak, the cases will come down. (See table for neighbouring districts)

According to experts, during the peak, cases in Karnataka could be anywhere between 70,000 and 1,50,000.

“This is as per the projections that have been very clearly made by the Indian Institute of Science and the scientists at Indian Statistical Institute. The projection is based on the week-on-week increase in COVID cases.

Experts have modelled and they have given the best and worst-case scenario. The best-case scenario is that there would be 70,000-75,000 infections per day towards the end of this month in Karnataka. The worst-case scenario is 1.5 lakh new infections every day for one or two days in the first or second week of February.

Mysuru District Administration has upped the ante and is ready to establish 21 COVID Care Centres and more and more hostels have been identified to serve the purpose.  Arrangements will be made to face the best case and worst case scenarios, said officials.

‘All suggestions followed’

We are following the directions of the COVID-19 Technical Advisory Committee. 21 COVID Care Centres will be opened in Mysuru and Deputy Commissioner Dr. Bagadi Gautham has already asked private hospitals to hand over 75 percent of the beds in the worst case scenario. We are ready with essential drugs and also the oxygen generation and supply has been stabilised. Mysuru has become self-reliant in oxygen.”— Dr. K.H. Prasad, District Health Officer