Kushalnagar: Contrary to the India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) forecast of above-average heavy to very heavy rainfall this South-West Monsoon, retired Deputy Director-General of the Geological Survey of India (GSI), Dr. H.S.M. Prakash, has predicted a normal monsoon for 2025, with a possibility of even below-average rainfall.

Speaking to Star of Mysore, Dr. Prakash pointed out that, unlike in 2018 and 2019, when Kodagu experienced severe floods and landslides, there has been no volcanic activity in the Arabian Sea or Bay of Bengal this year.

“In 2018 and 2019, volcanic eruptions in these regions led to intense heat, which contributed to the formation of rain-bearing clouds. This year, however, no such activity has been observed. Without volcanic heat, the likelihood of cloud formation & heavy rainfall is minimal,” he explained.

Dr. Prakash expressed confidence in his scientific assessment and cast doubts on the reliability of the IMD’s prediction methods. “My forecast is based on direct scientific analysis of atmospheric and geological conditions. The IMD, however, relies on modules, algorithms and historical data patterns, which are system-based and prone to errors,” he said.

According to him, the absence of tell-tale geological and atmospheric signs indicates that the 2025 monsoon may fall within normal limits — or even below expectations.