The Mysuru Lokayukta Police is due to submit its report regarding Chief Minister Siddaramaiah’s Mysuru Urban Development Authority (MUDA) site controversy to the High Court on Jan. 25. 

Meanwhile, yesterday, the Enforcement Directorate (ED), investigating the CM and others, attached 142 immovable properties worth Rs. 300 crore under the provisions of the Prevention of Money Laundering Act (PMLA), 2002.

But before jumping to conclusions that the noose is tightening around the CM, one must consider the conviction record and competence of India’s investigative agencies. If we do, we’ll know Siddaramaiah has little reason to worry. 

The track record of the ED and the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) in securing convictions is less than stellar.

For inspiration to avoid perspiration, Siddaramaiah needs to look no further than his Deputy Chief Minister, D.K. Shivakumar.

Despite raids yielding cash at his Delhi residence, his daughter being summoned for questioning and ongoing investigations, Shivakumar continues his political activities unabated. 

The Deputy CM’s care-free attitude probably doesn’t stem from confidence in his innocence but more from his confidence in the inefficiency and malleability of these                                                           investigative agencies.

Both the ED and the CBI have a dismal record of securing convictions. The ED secured its first-ever conviction under the PMLA 12 years after the Act came into force. 

Passed in 2005, the first conviction came in January 2017, involving Jharkhand’s former Minister Hari Narayan Rai, who laundered Rs. 3.7 crore.

As of today, out of 5,297 cases lodged under PMLA, only 40 convictions have been achieved and of these, three were acquitted! 

This abysmal track record has not gone unnoticed. In August 2024, a three-Judge Supreme Court bench remarked that the ED must adopt “scientific investigation” methods, focusing on quality prosecution and evidence instead of relying on affidavits and oral statements that may not stand in Court. 

The CBI fares no better. While political parties frequently demand CBI investigations to tilt political scales, the agency’s performance has been lacklustre.

According to a 2023 report by the Central Vigilance Commission (CVC), over 6,900 corruption cases investigated by the CBI are still pending trial. Of these, 361 cases have been pending for more than 20 years!

Speaking of incompetence, some may recall the Naval War Room Leak case where Lt. Commander Ravi Shankaran stole classified documents and passed them to a defence contractor, to secure a 3-billion-pound submarine deal with the Indian Navy.

Despite being arrested twice by the CBI, Shankaran escaped both times from the                 clutches of the CBI!

Eventually, he surrendered in London, but in 2023, a British Court quashed his extradition. The Court ruled that India had failed to even present a ‘prima facie’ case against him.

It’s shocking that after 10 years, our investigating agency couldn’t even make a case that ‘prima facie’ showed there was a case. 

Adding insult to injury, the Court criticised India’s ‘sluggish’ judicial system and ordered the CBI to pay Shankaran over Rs. 1 crore for his legal expenses.

Similarly, Vijay Mallya’s extradition case revealed systemic delays. In 2017, a UK Judge mocked India’s legal procedures and investigation saying “Are Indians normally very prompt in their responses? They have taken six months so far and we haven’t got any further forward in the past 6 weeks?”

The delays and lack of strong evidence allowed Mallya to enjoy extended bail, dragging the case further out.

Another example is the 1994 Ludhiana murder case where the CBI filed murder charges against Police Officer Sumedh Singh.

Now 30 years have passed and the case is still going on. During this time, the Officer facing the murder charge, Sumedh Singh, continued to be in Police service and even became the Director General of Punjab Police!

Even at the State-level, the Anti-Corruption Bureau (ACB) formed in 2016, so far according to 2021 data, has booked 1,814 cases, of which conviction took place in just 10 cases. That’s a conviction rate of 0.55%!

The Lokayukta registered 4,680 cases between 2000 and 2021 and had conviction in 878 cases, which is a strike rate of just 18%!

With this in context, Siddaramaiah has little reason to fear the ED’s actions. Evidence and investigations are more likely to be used as bargaining chips in political negotiations rather than instruments of justice.

So, while the ED and CBI might make headlines with their raids and seizures, Siddaramaiah can rest easy. The evidence collected will likely gather dust, and convictions, if they ever come, will take years.

For now, the Chief Minister has nothing to fear, even if the ED and CBI are here.

e-mail: vikram@starofmysore.com