Monsoon to enter Keralam coast by May end; KRS Dam level drops to 90.76 feet

Mysuru: The Southwest Monsoon is expected to arrive earlier than usual this year, with forecasts indicating its onset over India between May 14 and 16 and its arrival along the Keralam coast by the end of May.

From Keralam, the monsoon is expected to advance into Karnataka and become active across the State during the first week of June. Good rainfall could help reservoirs fill, boost agricultural activity and ensure a prosperous harvest, bringing relief to farmers and the public alike.

However, India’s weather office has forecast below-average monsoon rainfall in 2026, with an El Niño expected to develop and affect rainfall during the latter half of the June-to-September season.

El Niño conditions typically weaken monsoon activity and lead to uneven rainfall distribution, with intermittent spells of rain followed by long dry periods.

Could impact crop yields

Such irregular rainfall patterns could impact crop yields and lead to a slight rise in temperatures, reducing soil moisture, confirmed Dr. G.V. Sumanth Kumar, Technical Officer at the Agro-Meteorological Field Unit (AMFU) of the Organic Farming Research Station, Naganahalli (OFRSN), Mysuru, citing the latest India Meteorological   Department report.

India has recorded below-average rainfall during most El Niño years in the past, at times triggering severe droughts, damaging crops and forcing export curbs on certain grains.

El Niño, characterised by warming of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, alters atmospheric circulation and weakens monsoon winds over the Indian subcontinent.

Although it is strongly associated with weak monsoons, India has still recorded average or above-average rainfall in at least five of the 17 El Niño events witnessed over the past seven decades. However, rainfall has remained below average during the last six El Niño years.

In 2009, even a weak El Niño caused India’s rainfall to plunge to 78.2 percent of the long-period average, the lowest in 37 years. Weather models now suggest that the 2026 El Niño could be strong.

KRS Dam level drops

Meanwhile, the absence of rainfall in Kodagu district, the birthplace of the Cauvery, has sharply reduced inflow into the Krishna Raja Sagar (KRS) reservoir. As of today, the reservoir level has dropped to 90.76 feet against its full reservoir level of 124.80 feet.

The Cauvery is the lifeline for drinking water supply to Mysuru, Mandya, Bengaluru and thousands of villages. However, with inflow reduced to just 80 cusecs, the reservoir is releasing 1,466 cusecs daily to meet drinking water needs. Current storage stands at only 8.017 TMCft (thousand million cubic feet) against the reservoir’s full capacity of 49.452 TMCft.

Kodagu has received only 13.56 mm of rainfall between January and May. The lack of pre-monsoon showers has drastically reduced river flow. On Apr. 16, the KRS reservoir level stood at 100 feet, but it has fallen by nearly 10 feet in just 24 days. Compared to the same period last year, the level is lower by 3 feet.

Officials warned that if monsoon rains are delayed further, the situation could worsen. Drinking water supply remains secure until the reservoir reaches the ‘dead storage’ level of 60 feet, beyond which severe shortages are feared.

Reduced flow in the Cauvery has also affected Tamil Nadu’s Mettur reservoir, where the water level has fallen to 79.51 feet against the maximum level  of 120 feet.

Similarly, the Kabini reservoir in H.D. Kote taluk of Mysuru district is witnessing a steep decline due to a lack of rainfall in Kerala’s Wayanad region.

The reservoir level now stands at 2,255.64 feet, compared to 2,263.24 feet on the same day last year. Storage has fallen to 5.79 TMCft against the full capacity of 19.52 TMCft. Inflow is only 232 cusecs, while 900 cusecs of water is being released daily for drinking   water supply.